istorical grain yields provide us with a glimpse of
yields yet to come, although like the stock markets, past performance is no
guarantee of the future. State average corn grain yield in Indiana has
increased at a fairly constant 1.6 bushels per acre per year since 1930
primarily due to improved genetics and production technology (Fig. 1).
Since 1990, Indiana's corn crop yield has split even, with half of those years below trend and half above. The final USDA estimate for 2003 puts the Indiana corn crop at 146 bushels per acre, or about 3.0 percent above the 2003 trend line yield of 141.8 bushels per acre (Fig 1). By comparison, recent years' departures from trend yield (Fig. 2) were 2002 (-13.7 %), 2001 (+12.6 %), 2000 (+7.3 %) and 1999 (-2.5 %). November 2003 corn production estimates for each crop reporting district in Indiana are available in text or graphical formats.
Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Annual grain yield values fluctuate above and below the trend line throughout the more than 70 year period of records, but four disaster years are especially noteworthy. Late planting plus early fall frosts in 1974 resulted in state average corn yields 25% less than the trend value. Severe droughts in 1983, 1988 and 1991 resulted in yields 33%, 29% and 25% less than trend values.
Because the departures from trend for these four years are so dramatic, it is of some interest to calculate the trend line for corn grain yield without their inclusion. In so doing, the annual rate of yield increase is slightly greater (1.68 versus 1.61 bu/ac/yr) and the estimated trend yield for 2004 changes from 143.4 to 148.1 bushels per acre (Fig. 3). Such values may be more true estimates of statewide yield potential in "normal" years.
Fig. 3
The top five U.S. corn grain producing states are Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana and Minnesota (Fig. 4). According to the final USDA production estimates for 2003, these five states (6.6 billion bushels) accounted for nearly 65 % of the total estimated grain yield for the U.S. in 2003 (10.1 billion bushels).
Fig. 4
Interestingly, the trophy for top statewide yields per acre does not belong to any of these Midwestern states. Bragging rights for highest U.S. corn yields per acre belong to states farther to the west (Fig. 5). A few reasons for this include a) fewer cloudy and hazy days, b) less rainfall and humidity contributing to less disease, c) availability of irrigation, and d) fewer stressful hot nights during grainfill.
Fig. 5
For more statistics about Indiana agricultural production, "surf" on over to the home page of the Indiana Agricultural Statistics Service at http://www.nass.usda.gov/in/.
For more statistics on U.S. national crop production estimates, look at the National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Production page on the Web.